30 juillet 2007
The Economist : Only just staying in one piece (RDC)
© The Economist print edition | The Economist (28th - 3rd
August 2007, Vol. 384, No 8539)
July 26th 2007 | GOMA AND KINSHASA
Since last year's
historic elections, political and economic progress has stalled, while war
drums are rumbling in the country's east
IF EVER there were an urgent case for change in Congo after years of neglect
and war, it is Kinshasa's general hospital. The emergency room reeks of stale
urine. The sick lie outside, while relatives collect money for treatment.
Life-threatening cases are accepted but nothing happens until someone stumps up
the cash—even if the patients die.
Nine months after Congo's elections (the first for more than
40 years), which were meant to mark a fresh start after a war that left some 4m
dead, Dr Mbwebwe Kabamba, a surgeon in the hospital, is expecting no miracle
overnight. But, like millions who walked miles, risked attacks by gunmen or
simply stood in the rain to vote, he is looking for signs that those in power
might improve the situation.
Candidates made spectacular donations of thousands of
dollars to the hospital while they campaigned. But the doctor says none has
been back since. “Many say that the elections were a waste of time,” he
explains. “They don't see a difference between those in power before and those
in power now.”
Change, so far, has been small. Joseph Kabila, who was
nominated president in 2001 after his father, Laurent, was assassinated, is
still president. But now he has a five-year mandate, after winning 58% of the
vote. His first five years were spent trying to defeat rebels backed by the
armies of neighbouring countries and then holding together an unwieldy transitional
government. Now he must rebuild a country that was already crippled by decades
of dictatorship and corruption before it descended into the war that lasted
from 1998 to 2003, the most lethal anywhere since the second world war.
The elections were relatively free and fair. Even the
cynical were ready to give Mr Kabila a chance after he made a triple promise in
his inauguration speech: to ensure good governance, democracy and respect for
human rights. But the signs since then have been less hopeful. In February the
security forces killed at least 100 people demonstrating against rigged
provincial elections. In March hundreds more, mostly civilians, were killed
when fighting erupted between government forces and men loyal to Jean-Pierre
Bemba, a former rebel who came second in the presidential poll. Mr Bemba's
bodyguards were routed; he has gone into exile in Portugal. Attacks on
journalists have also been increasing in frequency.
Diplomats whose countries spent well over $500m paying for the elections were
shaken by the violence, particularly as some of their own houses were looted in
the fighting. But the president merely castigated those who complained that his
government had been heavy-handed.
The economy has yet to improve. Salaries have not gone up
but prices in the markets have. Pot-holes in the capital have not been filled
in. Electric power cuts out more often. Olivier Kamitatu, the planning minister,
says the country will take time to get back on its feet. According to the UN, a
Congolese person manages on average to get access to health care once in seven
years. Last month a meeting of would-be donors to discuss ways of giving the
Congolese a “peace dividend” was plunged into darkness by a power cut, despite
being held in Kinshasa's plushest hotel.
Some good initiatives have been launched. The government has
persuaded some opposition politicians who boycotted political institutions
after the post-election fighting to return. Legislators promise to keep
spending in check by reviewing it every three months. Those who want to run
state bodies will now be tested by officials on some basic skills, not just
their political connections. Logging and mining contracts worth billions of
dollars will apparently be reviewed.
But there is no sign that the country's vast mineral
resources will benefit more than a lucky handful. Few of the taxes that are
paid actually go into the state coffers. A Western diplomat estimates that
direct benefits to the state from mining totalled a paltry $32m last year,
though Congo-based copper-mining companies alone have made hundreds of millions
on stockmarkets in recent months.
Parliament has adopted a budget for 2007, albeit more than
six months into the year. But the government may struggle to lure back donors
after mismanagement led to the suspension of many lending programmes agreed on
last year. The budget this year, for a country of 60m-odd people, is a meagre
$2.4 billion.
Most worrying of all is the east, the centre of the last two
wars, where land and ethnic issues still stir up hatred. Rebel Rwandan Hutus,
home-grown militias and an abusive national army all continue to prey on
civilians. In North Kivu, the UN's Children's Fund (UNICEF) has helped 250,000
people who have fled violence since the elections. Faced with the killing,
raping and looting, civilians no longer differentiate between the various
groups of men with guns. “They all just pillage,” says a skeletal man
sheltering in a church. “It doesn't matter which side they are on.”
Hutu rebels from Rwanda, many of whom took part in the
genocide of 1994 when some 800,000 or so Rwandans were killed, once gave the
Rwandan government a reason for invading eastern Congo. They no longer threaten
Kigali, Rwanda's capital. But their very presence in Congo enrages their Tutsi
enemies in Congo's east, especially their self-proclaimed protector, General
Laurent Nkunda, a Congolese Tutsi who refused to join the army after the war
and has led a rebellion in the east instead.
Kabila still needs the peacekeepers
President Kabila's government says it wants Mr Nkunda
arrested for war crimes, but Mr Kabila has also sent an envoy to negotiate.
Turning down an offer of $2.5m and a life of exile in South Africa, Mr Nkunda
accepted a deal in January to integrate some of his men into the national army.
Mr Kabila hoped this would weaken Mr Nkunda. Instead, it let him recruit more
Tutsis and others from Rwanda. He claims still to want to join the national
army, but his influence has spread across North Kivu. By taking over the
police, tax collection and the intelligence services, he runs a parallel
administration.
Mr Kabila is now sending soldiers, tanks and helicopter
gunships to the east, threatening to squash Mr Nkunda for good. “There's an
international plot against the Tutsis and we won't accept it,” says Mr Nkunda
in his headquarters, protected by well-trained soldiers and anti-aircraft guns.
“They can come and attack. They have all the means but I will take them on. I'm
not scared to die.”
Much of this mess arises from botched attempts to reform the
army and police. Foreign donors failed to plan how to integrate tens of
thousands of gunmen into a national army. A demobilisation and reintegration
programme stopped at the end of last year as the money ran out and the agency
involved was accused of corruption. Some 15 integrated brigades, embracing men
from groups that had fought one another in the civil war, have been formed, but
they are pretty chaotic. Some 80,000 soldiers remain in separate units.
In any event, the rump of the army is rotten. By one
account, soldiers get just 15 meals a month. Most of their wages are stolen, so
they turn to theft in their turn. The 100,000 or so who had demobilised have
had little success in finding jobs. Many may rejoin armed groups out of
frustration. Western diplomats say the government will soon turn to China for a
no-strings arms deal and military training in return for easier access to
mining, oil and logging.
Can outsiders hold the
ring for ever ?
This leaves the UN's 17,000 peacekeepers stuck in the
middle. Some have been accused of participation in sex rings and gold
smuggling. But without the UN, the elections would not have taken place. The UN
mission, a state within a state, is in an increasingly awkward position. For
instance, despite the fact that some of Mr Nkunda's men have committed war
crimes, the UN must still carry out joint patrols with them as they are
officially part of the national army. And if violence were to erupt again, the UN
would probably be asked by Mr Kabila to help him arrest rebel leaders such as
Mr Nkunda. This poses a danger of the UN being sucked into a new civil war.
With the elections over and new missions elsewhere, pressure
is mounting for the UN's force to be reduced. The Congo mission costs more than
$1 billion a year. William Swing, its head, has given warning against pulling
out before the job is done. “I've said please don't give us arbitrary draw-down
formulas. I want something that makes sense in military terms.” But no one
seems to know what that will be—and few are confident that Congo can stand on
its own feet any time soon.
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